When Greg Cromer was elected to the state House of Representatives two years ago, one of his requests for committee assignments was with an eye on the future of state government: Knowing that the 2010 Census would require a redrawing of Louisiana’s legislative districts, Cromer sought and received a seat on the House and Governmental Affairs Committee, a sub-body of the Legislature that usually gets scant attention but which will, in short order, be a powerful place to be.
“This is one of the reasons I asked to be on this committee,” Cromer said. “I thought it was important that St. Tammany have representation in this process.” The way it works is complex in its simplicity. Legislators will have the task of redrawing their own district boundaries for both the House and Senate, based on new population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Sounds fairly easy, right? Wrong.
After the House and Governmental Affairs AND the Senate and Governmental Affairs Committees have their say, it goes through both the full House of Representatives – all 105 members, each with his or her own ideas and wishes – and the full Senate – all 39 members, each with his or her own ideas and wishes. Then it goes to the Federal Elections Commission and the Department of Justice, where analysts make sure legislators have respected both natural and developmental boundaries, in addition to fair representation across racial demographics. Then it comes back to the Legislature for final approval. It can take a long time, can be a procedural and political maelstrom, and can even land in federal court. And it bears mentioning that the Legislature will also be responsible for redrawing the lines for Louisiana’s Congressional seats – currently seven, but likely to be six by the time all is said and done.
“We’ll have to have Committee meetings and a Special Session,” Cromer said. “Then the House and Senate give the thumbs-up, and it goes to the FEC. Then we have to have another Special Session.”
Adding to the workload, Louisiana is one of only a handful of states with elections in 2011 – the year after the constitutionally mandated census and the time when Census data are first released and vetted. “Not a lot can happen until the 2010 census is complete,” Cromer said. “They have promised to process our numbers first.”
It’s a good thing. By the time the 2010 data are fully gathered, processed and sent to the states, the year after the census is usually well underway. But in Louisiana in 2011, everything must be finalized well before candidates qualify for election in late summer. And until the process is complete, none of the 144 can say with absolute certainty that they will still live in the district they currently represent – or that they won’t be running against another incumbent when seeking reelection.
Although rare, it can happen. Two sitting lawmakers might live a short distance apart, with the current district boundary running between their domiciles. Redrawing their respective districts can extend one’s boundary into the other’s neighborhood, pitting two incumbent elected officials against one another for a seat that is almost technically vacant since the district is new.
Most importantly, many expect the northshore in general, and St. Tammany in particular, to gain at least one seat in the House of Representatives as a result of the post-Katrina northward population shift from St. Bernard and other southshore parishes.
Currently, Cromer said, each representative serves about 41,000 people and each senator about 120,000. St. Tammany, for example, has six House districts and four Senate districts, but only three of the ten – Districts 76, 89 and 90 – have districts that are entirely within one parish. The others – House Districts 74, 75 and 77, and Senate Districts 1, 6, 11 and 12 – extend variously into Washington, Tangipahoa, Jefferson, Orleans, St. Bernard, and Plaquemines Parishes.
“Look at (Senator) A.G. Crowe’s district,” Cromer said. “It doesn’t make a lot of sense for it to run from Pearl River all the way down to the tip of Plaquemines Parish.”
That line was drawn after the 2000 census in the 2003 election, when District 11 Sen. Tom Schedler saw his district lose south Slidell and District 1 Sen. Lynn Dean’s saw his territory grow northward from St. Bernard and Plaquemines into St. Tammany and Pearl River. (District 11 is now represented by Sen. Jack Donahue and District 1 by Crowe.) Dean, of St. Bernard, did not seek reelection, arguably because he feared he couldn’t carry St. Tammany voters into his column, although the seat went in 2003 to St. Bernard resident Walter Boasso. The same year, St. Tammany was awarded House District 89, a small but densely populated area in and around Mandeville now served by Rep. Tim Burns.
In similar fashion, but dating back even farther is Senate District 6, which during the term of the late John Hainkel grew to include parts of Orleans, Jefferson, St. Tammany and Tangipahoa. (District 6 is now represented by Sen. Julie Quinn, of Metairie.)
Cromer said he believes Crowe’s current district should shrink to serve only a northshore constituency, while Quinn’s should shrink to encompass only southshore voters. And Crowe doesn’t disagree. “While it’s an honor and a privilege to serve the citizens of St. Bernard, Plaquemines and Orleans, I wouldn’t have major objections to consolidation of this district,” Crowe said. “A Senate district is supposed to be about 115,000 to 120,000 people; we’ve got at least 130,000 in eastern St. Tammany.”
Crowe said political efforts by some legislators to protect their districts after the 2000 census created a “ripple effect” that resulted in less than reasonable district boundaries being drawn. But that may be changing. “I think that in the Senate, and in the House, too, this is not going to have so many strategic games and protection of territory (as last time),” Crowe said. “There are going to be some major battles south of the lake. Where there’s a population drop is where you’ll see the tensions.”
And on the northshore, there has certainly been no decline in population. “In St. Tammany Parish with the increase in population that is expected in the 2010 Census, we could easily have two senators in St. Tammany Parish alone,” Cromer said. “As far as the House should go, we could easily end up with a new House seat.”
And on the southshore, circumstances are reversed, increasing the likelihood that the number of seats will decline while incumbents battle for survival. “It’s going to be a tough situation,” Crowe said. “St. Bernard may have only one representative in the House, where they currently have two.”
Cromer wouldn’t speculate about where the anticipated new House district might arise in St. Tammany, citing growth in both Central and Northwest St. Tammany Parishes. But he does believe District 77, currently served by Rep. John Schroder, will shrink to a more consolidated land area due to population growth in and around Covington and Folsom. Schroder’s district currently goes from northwest St. Tammany to central Tangipahoa.
And when those Senate districts are redrawn, Cromer said he hopes to see two complete districts that serve St. Tammany’s voters, drawn along natural boundaries such as the lakeshore and man-made ones such as I-12. “I don’t want to divide the Parish by east and west, which would only heighten the divisions we’ve been trying to overcome,” Cromer said. “I’d rather see it divided north and south, with one person elected to serve the entire Lake Pontchartrain coast in St. Tammany.” “I would like to see two full (Senate) districts, with one overlapping into another parish,” Cromer said. “Representative-wise, I’d like to see (House) District 77 pulled in a little more.”
While the outcome is uncertain, Cromer has a vision for what he’d like to see happen, even if we don’t yet know where, exactly, it could occur. “There will probably be at least one more northshore seat in the House, possibly two in the Florida Parishes,” Cromer said. “It’s all in a state of flux until we get at least a rough estimate of the census.”
And that estimate is at the very least 14 months away. In the meantime, state lawmakers across Louisiana will be watching closely, waiting to see if they will still live in the same district they currently serve or whether the voter demographics will change so abruptly that reelection would seem difficult or uncertain.