Expecting house guests this summer? Better hope their names aren’t Ana, Bill, Claudette or Danny. Erika, Fred, Grace and Henri can stay away, too. And let’s just hope we never come anywhere close to seeing Wanda.

The 2009 storm names are an ominous guest list of visitors we might expect – and hope not to – during the June 1 through November 30 Hurricane Season.

The very notion of “Hurricane Season” can bring a mix of emotions, long before the first clouds start swirling in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. For some, memories of Hurricane Katrina are too painful to remember. For others, denial is the preferred emotion. But for anyone who used to think “it can’t happen here,” there are memorials and ceremonies every August 29 to say different.

Professional prognosticators who specialize in storm season predictions are saying 2009 will be an “average” season. Scientists at the University of Colorado’s Department of Atmospheric Science start issuing predictions each December and update the forecast as the season nears and then progresses. According to the April 7, 2009, update, things shouldn’t be that bad this year.

From its original prediction of 14 named storms, the University’s team downgraded to 12 in the latest update. There will be 55 days of named storm activity this year, according to the latest forecast, down from 70 in the initial prediction. Six of the named storms will be hurricanes, and two of them will be intense storms of Category 3, 4 or 5.

For reference, Katrina was a strong “3” or weak “4” when it came ashore, but the storm surge had the momentum of a Category 5, by some estimations, because of the buildup of wind force that kept the water moving inland after the storm’s existing winds had weakened at landfall.

From 1950 to 2000, there was an average of 5.9 hurricanes a year and 2.9 intense ones, so this year’s predictions fall right into the “average” range. And Colorado’s science team is predicting a 31 percent chance of a named storm striking the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas. (The average over the last half-century was 30 percent.)

So things are looking OK, right? Right? 

Not so fast, say emergency operations experts on the northshore.

“What happens is the media is portraying a great hurricane season and everyone falls in line,” said Dawson Primes, director of homeland security and emergency operations for Tangipahoa Parish Government. “People have a false sense of security so they don’t update their hurricane kits or plans or replenish their supplies.”

So don’t be lulled by the meager predictions, Primes said.

“It’s an ‘average’ season, but it only takes one,” he said. “In 1992 when Hurricane Andrew hit, it was one of only three named storms that year. We stress that people should not get complacent.”

Because it doesn’t take a Katrina-like storm to wreak havoc, Primes and other officials are preparing to the fullest extent possible.

“Once again, we are in the process of upgrading everything, as we do every year,” said Dexter Accardo, director of homeland security and emergency operations for St. Tammany Parish Government.

In St. Tammany, that has meant, in part, a restructuring of personnel assignments in the event of a major emergency.

“During EOC (Emergency Operations Center) activation, all department heads are removed from normal activities and are given secondary assignments for the term of the activation,” Accardo said. “We have two designated people within Parish Government that will be in command and control of the sheltering situation. We have a person responsible for internal transportation needs. We have established a work station for our Engineering Department with all the flood models so they can better give information about an impact area. It’s a lot more streamlined.”

“From every event, we learn something to make emergency response better,” Primes said.

In Tangipahoa, in fact, the focus has been on technological upgrades, including the purchase of high-tech radios that will be deployed parish-wide through a $600,000 grant.

“We have also completely revamped our website,” Primes said of www.tangisafe.com. “When our EOC is activated, we’ll be able to put public service announcements online as often as needed. We have a new alert system that is downloadable from our website; it essentially turns your computer into a weather radio. It also gives live radar and feeds for local television stations.”

But when the power goes out and the Internet is offline?

Both St. Tammany and Tangipahoa EOCs have embedded radio stations with the technology on-site to go live at a moment’s notice. In Tangipahoa, 96.5 FM and 107.1 FM have broadcasting capabilities from the EOC, and in St. Tammany 870 AM and 106.1 FM are located in the building, on-site.

“Anything we need to put out, all we have to do is walk in the room and get on the air,” Primes said.

Both parishes also use a telephone alert system whereby officials can issue evacuation orders, provide information about shelters, or give instructions through automated calls to specific neighborhoods. “We have fine-tuned our ability to notify people by telephone,” Accardo said. “We can better grid an area with demographics.”

Communication – or the lack thereof – proved to be among the most daunting hurdles during and after the worst natural disaster in American history. With cell towers down or without power and emergency responders’ radio systems jammed or incompatible with other agencies’ systems, it was often a situation of catch-as-catch-can. And catch, they did. But interoperability and redundancy of systems have become bywords of emergency response.

In addition to the newer radio systems in both parishes, emergency responders also have partnerships with HAM radio operators, whose “amateur” systems proved more useful and durable than just about anything else after Katrina.

Both parishes also have strong interfaces with the faith-based community, learning after Katrina that churches were among the ablest first responders when it came to offering post-event shelter and distributing supplies and donations – the latter being functions that fall far outside the scope of government agencies in most cases. When Good Samaritans show up with a truckload of clothing or canned goods or mattresses the next time, EOC staff will know exactly how to deploy them – to churches already in the EOC databases.

While professionals prepare, it is equally important that citizens do, too. Stock up on batteries, portable radios, flashlights, bottled water and non-perishable food items. Have an evacuation route planned and a destination pre-selected. Make preparations for pets. Fill your prescriptions and your gas tanks whenever there’s tropical activity. And, most importantly, obey the directions of emergency responders and public officials.

“There are a lot of people who don’t heed the warnings,” Primes said. “They put their heads in the sand and think, ‘this can’t happen to me.’” Like Primes, Accardo said thinking that an ‘average’ hurricane season means we’re all safe is a mistake.

“It only takes one,” he said. “We’re going to prepare as if we’re going to get hit. Anything less than that, and we get a bunch of smiles, but everything is in place.”

To schedule a presentation about hurricane safety for your homeowners association, club, church or other group, contact Primes at 748.3211 or Accardo at 898.2359. For more information on the web, visit www.tangisafe.com or www.stpgov.org.

2009 Storm Names: